Kamala Harris Win Odds at 52%, Trumps Crypto Dream Fading?

Kamala Harris‘s odds of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election have surged to 52% while former President Donald Trump lags behind on Polymarket. Hence, markets are now more confident on Harris’ win, which puts Trumps crypto plans at risk.

Kamala Harris Secures Lead Over Trump

Today, Trump‘s odds have dipped to 47%, according to Polymarket data. The recent increase in Harris’s odds comes amid discussions of her potential financial policies, including her stance on cryptocurrencies. Although she has not taken concrete steps regarding digital assets, her win could have implications for the crypto domain. Also, Trumps ambitious crypto project, World Liberty Financial (WLFI) and strategic Bitcoin reserve plan may face doom.

Trumps WLFI is positioned to offer borrowing and lending services for cryptocurrencies on the Ethereum blockchain. The project aims to compete in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector by offering a more user-friendly interface compared to existing platforms.

It will introduce a governance token, WLFI, which will be non-transferable, making it unique among crypto tokens. The project seeks to draw in crypto enthusiasts by simplifying complex DeFi processes, removing the need for intermediaries like banks, and providing a streamlined experience for borrowing and lending.

An essential feature of the WLFI project is that the tokens will be sold under the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commissions (SEC) Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This rule allows the sale of unregistered securities to accredited investors, bypassing traditional regulatory hurdles.

However, this legal structure presents risks, particularly given the current regulatory environment under the Biden administration and SEC Chair Gary Gensler. The SEC has aggressively targeted major crypto firms, including Ripple, Coinbase, and Binance, raising concerns about potential enforcement actions against WLFI.

Hostile Environment for Crypto

If Kamala Harris wins the presidency, her administration could continue the SEC‘s stringent regulatory approach. Harris’s alignment with the Democratic Party‘s seemingly negative stance on cryptocurrencies suggests that Trump’s crypto project may face significant hurdles. Also, her crypto reset efforts have not bore any fruit.

The SEC‘s continued leadership under Gary Gensler, or a similar figure, could lead to increased scrutiny and regulatory actions against WLFI. The concerns could escalate given the project’s reliance on the sale of unregistered securities.

While Trump has floated the idea of creating a Bitcoin strategic reserve if re-elected, the dream would never come true as the Harris campaign has not promised any such initiative. Moreover, recently, during the SEC political crypto bias hearing on September 18, Democrats deemed the FIT21 and anti-SAB 121 bills as “harmful” and MAGA-driven.

The latest statements rightly suggest that the Democrats are still hostile toward crypto. Nonetheless, Ripple CLO Stuart Alderoty is optimistic on the future of crypto regardless of who wins the elections. However, even if Harris doesnt crack down on other crypto entities, Trump could still be an exception.