All Eyes on the Fed: What Rate Cuts Could Mean for Bitcoin

Wednesday is poised to be a huge day for the markets. Americas central bank is expected to finally slash interest rates from their 23-year high after hiking them up in 2022, and the resulting impact could have wide implications across all major markets.

Under Chair Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs in a bid to control inflation, which skyrocketed following the Covid-19 pandemic. Now, with a stronger job market, the plan is to lower interest rates—hopefully without triggering a recession in the process.

Markets are expecting interest rates to drop Wednesday following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which begins today and concludes Wednesday.

What does this have to do with crypto, though？ And why is everyone talking about this meeting？

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have largely benefited from low interest rates because they are “risk-on” assets. Such investments—which also include U.S. equities like tech stocks—have more volatile price movements.

But in 2022, the central bank aggressively hiked interest rates, making other places to put money—such as bonds or treasury bills—more attractive.

The crypto market has largely moved with U.S. equities—especially now. K33 Research said that the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is now at levels not seen since October 2022.

Macroeconomic developments currently have outsized effects on BTC.

The 30-day correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has surged to levels not seen since Oct 2022.

This regime may last until the Sep 18 FOMC, as traders remain conservative upon the rate cut confirmation. pic.twitter.com/7aPlRvvuvE

— K33 Research (@K33Research) September 12, 2024

It appears that digital assets are more sensitive to Fed policy than ever before—and this is why the crypto world is so focused on what happens Wednesday. A rate cut would mark a “pivot” in monetary policy that could boost crypto, said Jake Ostrovskis, OTC trader at crypto trading firm Wintermute.

“Historically, such a move increases liquidity in the financial system, which tends to benefit risk-on assets like Bitcoin,” he told Decrypt.

In other words, the more investors that are willing to take risks, the more money theyll want to put into the space—which could cause the price of digital assets to rise.

The other thing analysts are focused on is just how big the cut will be. Markets have priced in a cut—but the difference between a 25-basis point and a 50-basis point reduction could make a big difference.

“Correlations between cryptocurrencies and broader risk assets are at an 18-month high, prompting crypto investors to pay closer attention to these economic trends,” FalconX Head of Research David Lawant told Decrypt.

He added that a surprise 50 basis-point cut could give risk assets an “unexpected boost.”

On Monday, Senator Elizabeth Warren—one of the biggest crypto critics in Congress—joined two fellow Senators in pushing for a 75-basis point cut in a letter to the Fed Chair. Her reasoning was that anything less could trigger a recession.

Youwei Yang, Chief Economist at mining firm BIT Mining Limited, said that “the magnitude of the rate cut” could significantly impact “market liquidity, investor sentiment, and the relative attractiveness of these assets.”

But Ostrovskis said that the immediate size of the cut was less important than the “longer-term rate outlook,” including how long the cutting cycle is expected to last and the committees view on the labor market.

All eyes on Powell, then.

Edited by Andrew Hayward