US President Joe Bidens Administration Went from Anti-Crypto to Full Degen in One Month

In May, the crypto industry saw significant events related to regulatory clarity in the US. President Joe Bidens administration has dramatically shifted its crypto stance within a month. Initially resistant to crypto, the administration recently took several pro-crypto actions, signaling a significant policy change.

5 月份，加密货币行业发生了与美国监管清晰度相关的重大事件。拜登总统的政府在一个月内大幅改变了其加密货币立场。该政府最初对加密货币持抵制态度，但最近采取了多项支持加密货币的行动，这表明政策发生了重大变化。

This article explores the events and motivations behind this surprising transition, including political pressures and legislative developments.

本文探讨了这一令人惊讶的转变背后的事件和动机，包括政治压力和立法发展。

Passage of Crypto-Focused Bills

通过以加密货币为重点的法案

On May 16, the US Senate voted to pass H.J. Res 109, a resolution to overturn the Securities and Exchange Commission‘s (SEC) controversial Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121 (SAB 121). Introduced in March 2022, SAB 121 requires financial institutions to list customers’ digital assets on their balance sheets.

5月16日，美国参议院投票通过了hj res 109决议，该决议推翻了美国证券交易委员会（sec）备受争议的《员工会计公告第121号》（sab 121）。sab 121于2022年3月推出，要求金融机构在资产负债表上列出客户的数字资产。

Critics argue this mandate creates substantial operational and financial burdens for firms handling cryptocurrencies. It also potentially exposes customers assets to risks in bankruptcy situations.

批评者认为，这一规定给处理加密货币的公司带来了巨大的运营和财务负担。它还可能使客户资产在破产情况下面临风险。

Despite Congress passing the resolution, it did not secure enough votes to be veto-proof. Before the passage, Biden has vowed to veto it. His administration argues that overturning SAB 121 would weaken the SECs ability to protect investors and the financial system from crypto-related risks.

尽管国会通过了该决议，但其票数不足以阻止否决。在通过之前，拜登曾誓言要否决该决议。他的政府认为，推翻 sab 121 将削弱 sec 保护投资者和金融系统免受加密货币相关风险的能力。

On May 22, the US House of Representatives passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21). Introduced in July 2023, the bill aims to define the roles of the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in overseeing cryptocurrencies.

5月22日，美国众议院通过了《21世纪金融创新与技术法案》（fit21）。该法案于2023年7月提出，旨在明确美国证券交易委员会（sec）和商品期货交易委员会（cftc）在监管加密货币方面的作用。

It also establishes guidelines for various aspects of the crypto market, including token issuance, trading, and custody. The bill was approved with bipartisan support in a 279-136 vote, with 71 Democrats joining 208 Republicans in favor.

该法案还为加密货币市场的各个方面制定了指导方针，包括代币发行、交易和托管。该法案以 279 票赞成、136 票反对的结果获得两党支持，其中 71 名民主党人和 208 名共和党人赞成。

The White House again opposed the bill, citing consumer and investor protection concerns. While the administration acknowledges the need for a regulatory framework for digital assets, they believe FIT21 requires additional safeguards. However, President Joe Bidens statement did not mention a veto threat, unlike his response to H.J. Res. 109.

白宫再次反对该法案，理由是担心消费者和投资者保护问题。尽管政府承认需要为数字资产建立监管框架，但他们认为 fit21 需要额外的保障措施。然而，与他对 hj res. 109 的回应不同，总统乔·拜登的声明中没有提到否决威胁。

SEC Chair Gary Gensler also stated his opposition to FIT21. Gensler argues the bill undermines classifying crypto assets as investment contracts. This change would remove these assets from the SECs oversight, making it harder to protect investors.

sec 主席 gary gensler 也表示反对 fit21。gensler 认为该法案破坏了将加密资产归类为投资合约的原则。这一变化将使这些资产脱离 sec 的监管，使保护投资者变得更加困难。

Following the passage of H.J. Res. 109 and FIT21, the crypto industry saw the US House of Representatives pass the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act on May 23. This bill aims to amend the Federal Reserve Act to prevent central bank digital currency (CBDC) from being used for monetary policy or direct consumer services.

继hj res. 109和fit21通过之后，加密行业又看到美国众议院于5月23日通过了《cbdc反监视国家法案》。该法案旨在修改《联邦储备法》，以防止央行数字货币（cbdc）被用于货币政策或直接消费者服务。

The bill‘s debate saw sparse attendance. Republican proponents emphasized the risk of CBDC misuse, while Democrats focused on innovation, the dollar’s global standing, and flaws in the bills drafting.

该法案的辩论出席人数稀少。共和党支持者强调 cbdc 滥用的风险，而民主党则关注创新、美元的全球地位以及法案起草中的缺陷。

During the delivery, Chairman Patrick McHenry highlighted instances where governments, such as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), have used CBDCs to monitor citizens spending behaviors. This surveillance implements a social credit system that either rewards or penalizes individuals based on their actions. McHenry asserted this form of financial surveillance is unacceptable in the US.

在演讲中，主席帕特里克·麦克亨利强调了中国共产党等政府使用 cbdc 监控公民消费行为的例子。这种监控实施了一种社会信用体系，根据个人的行为对其进行奖励或惩罚。麦克亨利坚称这种形式的金融监控在美国是不可接受的。

Majority Whip Tom Emmer introduced the bill in 2023, which gained 165 Republican cosponsors and passed with a 216-192 vote. Now heading to the Senate, this passage marks the third time the US House has passed crypto-focused bills in May.

多数党党鞭汤姆·埃默 (tom emmer) 于 2023 年提出了这项法案，该法案获得了 165 名共和党共同提案人的支持，并以 216 票对 192 票通过。该法案现已提交参议院审议，这是美国众议院在 5 月份第三次通过以加密货币为重点的法案。

A 180 in Spot Ethereum ETFs

现货以太坊 etf 的 180 度大转变

Amid the legislative backdrop, the crypto industry saw a notable shift in focus toward exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly with Ethereum (ETH) at the center of attention.

在立法背景下，加密货币行业的焦点明显转向交易所交易基金（etf），尤其是以太坊（eth）成为关注的焦点。

Grayscale withdrew its 19b-4 filings for its futures Ethereum ETF on May 7. The sudden withdrawal raised speculation among industry experts and the crypto community. James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, suggested the filing might have been a strategic move.

5 月 7 日，grayscale 撤回了其期货以太坊 etf 的 19b-4 申请。这一突然撤回引发了行业专家和加密社区的猜测。彭博情报的 etf 分析师 james seyffart 表示，此次申请可能是一种战略举措。

At that time, Seyffart and his fellow ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, still had very low odds of the spot Ethereum ETF approval by the SEC. They kept slashing their odds until they became “none to minimum.”

当时，seyffart 和他的 etf 分析师同事 eric balchunas 认为，现货以太坊 etf 获得 sec 批准的几率仍然很低。他们不断降低几率，直到几率变成“从零到最低”。

However, on May 20, they suddenly increased their odds of spot Ethereum ETF approval from 25% to 75%. This followed the SEC reportedly requesting asset managers wanting to list spot Ethereum ETFs to update 19b-4 filings ahead of the deadline. Balchunas admitted he heard chatter that the SEC could be doing a 180, but they maintained a cautious approach by capping the odds at 75% until they saw the filing updates.

然而，5 月 20 日，他们突然将现货以太坊 etf 获批的几率从 25% 提高到 75%。此前，据报道，sec 要求希望上市现货以太坊 etf 的资产管理公司在截止日期前更新 19b-4 文件。balchunas 承认，他听到传言称 sec 可能会做出 180 度大转弯，但他们保持谨慎态度，将几率限制在 75%，直到他们看到文件更新。

Following the increased odds, the potential spot Ethereum ETFs gradually amended their 19b-4 filings with the SEC. All these asset managers excluded staking provisions by explicitly stating that “neither the Trust, nor the Sponsor, nor the Custodian, nor any other person associated with the Trust will, directly or indirectly, engage” in staking-related activities.

随着可能性的增加，潜在的现货以太坊 etf 逐渐修改了向 sec 提交的 19b-4 文件。所有这些资产管理公司都明确表示“信托、发起人、托管人或与信托相关的任何其他人员均不会直接或间接参与”与质押相关的活动，从而排除了质押条款。

Additionally, three Republican and two Democratic senators wrote a letter to Gensler, urging the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. Finally, on May 23, the SEC approved the revised 19b-4 filings of nine asset managers.

此外，三名共和党参议员和两名民主党参议员致信 gensler，敦促批准现货以太坊 etf。最终，5 月 23 日，sec 批准了九家资产管理公司修订后的 19b-4 文件。

Following this preliminary approval, some asset managers, including BlackRock and VanEck, updated their S-1 filings to remove staking aspects. These moves fueled confidence among analysts that these ETFs could launch soon, probably sometime in July.

获得初步批准后，贝莱德和 vaneck 等一些资产管理公司更新了 s-1 文件，删除了质押部分。这些举措增强了分析师的信心，他们认为这些 etf 可能很快就会推出，大概在 7 月份。

Political Pressures and the Election

政治压力和选举

In early May, Trump held an exclusive event with the NFT community, publicly declaring he would accept crypto campaign donations for the first time. He also pledged a more welcoming approach to the crypto industry, criticizing current US regulatory measures as “hostility.” Moreover, he urged those who favor crypto to vote for him.

5 月初，特朗普与 nft 社区举行了一场独家活动，公开宣布他将首次接受加密货币竞选捐款。他还承诺对加密货币行业采取更欢迎的态度，批评美国目前的监管措施是“敌意”。此外，他还敦促那些支持加密货币的人投票给他。

Trump has expressed his comfort with crypto several times and reportedly explored Bitcoins use case to help address the US national debt of $35 trillion. He has also promised to pardon Ross Ulbricht, the darknet marketplace Silk Road operator if re-elected.

特朗普曾多次表示他对加密货币很满意，据报道，他正在探索比特币的使用案例，以帮助解决美国 35 万亿美元的国债问题。他还承诺，如果再次当选，他将赦免暗网市场丝绸之路的运营商 ross ulbricht。

“If you vote for me, on day one, I will commute Ross Ulbricht‘s sentence to time served. He’s already served 11 years, and were going to get him home,” Trump promised.

“如果你投票给我，第一天我就将罗斯·乌布利希的刑期减为已服刑期。他已经服刑 11 年了，我们会让他回家的，”特朗普承诺道。

Trump also pledged to “support the right to self-custody to the nation‘s 50 million crypto holders.” This statement is particularly interesting because Biden’s administration has been enforcing actions against self-custodial and privacy-focused platforms. These include MetaMask, Samourai Wallet, and Tornado Cash.

特朗普还承诺“支持全国 5000 万加密货币持有者的自我托管权”。这一声明尤其有趣，因为拜登政府一直在对自我托管和注重隐私的平台采取行动。这些平台包括 metamask、samourai wallet 和 tornado cash。

On May 29, the Department of Treasury Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian Nelson, addressed the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network‘s (FinCEN’s) 2023 proposal. This proposal seeks to classify mixers as a “primary money laundering concern” and requires virtual asset service providers (VASPs) to report any crypto transactions involving mixing to the agency. He stated that the department is not attempting to ban crypto mixing services.

5 月 29 日，财政部反恐和金融情报部长 brian nelson 就金融犯罪执法网络 (fincen) 的 2023 年提案发表了讲话。该提案旨在将混合器归类为“主要洗钱问题”，并要求虚拟资产服务提供商 (vasp) 向该机构报告任何涉及混合的加密交易。他表示，该部门并未试图禁止加密混合服务。

“At the end of the day, this is not a ban on mixers. This is a proposed rule designed to drive transparency,” Nelson stated.

“归根结底，这并不是对混合器的禁令。这是一项旨在提高透明度的拟议规则，”尼尔森表示。

While Nelson expressed sympathy for crypto users desires for financial privacy, he suggested that most mixers are not created to enhance privacy. Instead, they are made to skirt anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) reporting requirements. This makes them “very attractive” to bad actors.

虽然纳尔逊对加密货币用户对财务隐私的渴望表示同情，但他表示，大多数混合器并不是为了增强隐私而创建的。相反，它们是为了规避反洗钱 (aml) 和了解客户 (kyc) 报告要求而创建的。这使得它们对坏人“非常有吸引力”。

Trump‘s bold moves came at a strategic time when Biden’s administration was long known for its stringent approach toward the crypto industry. Moreover, key industry figures have declared they will support a candidate favoring crypto.

特朗普的大胆举措正值拜登政府长期以来以对加密货币行业的严格态度而闻名的战略时刻。此外，关键的行业人物已宣布他们将支持支持加密货币的候选人。

Given this outlook, it is understandable that Bidens campaign tried to gain votes from the crypto industry. Last week, Biden reportedly began engaging with crypto industry players as part of his re-election campaign. Starting over two weeks ago, the re-election team contacted several crypto experts, including those previously distanced by Biden.

鉴于这种前景，拜登竞选团队试图从加密行业获得选票是可以理解的。据报道，拜登上周开始与加密行业参与者接触，作为其连任竞选活动的一部分。从两周前开始，连任团队联系了几位加密专家，其中包括之前被拜登疏远的专家。

Trumps chances increased substantially over the past months following a series of pro-crypto actions and statements. Data from the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket shows that Trump has a 54% chance of winning the upcoming election. The percentage starkly contrasts with Biden, who only has a 38% chance.

在过去几个月里，特朗普的一系列支持加密货币的行动和言论大大增加了他获胜的机会。加密货币预测平台 polymarket 的数据显示，特朗普赢得即将到来的选举的可能性为 54%。这一比例与拜登形成鲜明对比，拜登只有 38% 的机会。

Chances of Presidential Candidates to Win 2024s Election. Source: Polymarket

总统候选人赢得 2024 年大选的可能性。资料来源：polymarket

On a broader scale, according to an NPR/PBS/Marist poll, Biden is losing support among key demographics. Young voters under 45 prefer Biden over Trump by just four points.

从更广泛的角度来看，根据 npr/pbs/marist 的民意调查，拜登在关键人群中的支持率正在下降。45 岁以下的年轻选民对拜登的支持率仅比特朗普高出 4 个百分点。

In a head-to-head matchup, Biden leads among Gen Z/Millennials by six points. However, the swing votes in Trumps favor among the two groups, by six points among Gen Z/Millennials and among voters under 45, with third-party candidates in the mix, have an advantage of eight points.

在正面对决中，拜登在 z 世代/千禧一代中领先 6 个百分点。然而，这两个群体中特朗普的摇摆票数在 z 世代/千禧一代中领先 6 个百分点，在 45 岁以下选民中（包括第三方候选人）领先 8 个百分点。

This dramatic shift within the Biden administration reflects a complex interplay of regulatory, legislative, and political factors. As the administration navigates this evolving environment, the upcoming months will be crucial in shaping the future of crypto regulation in the US.

拜登政府内部的这一重大转变反映了监管、立法和政治因素的复杂相互作用。随着政府应对这一不断变化的环境，未来几个月对于塑造美国加密货币监管的未来至关重要。