Real damage incoming: Recession probability extremely elevated

　　“The yield curve steepening is when well see the real damage that was done from the tightening. Probability of a recession later this year is still extremely elevated,” the platform said.

　　The yield curve, tracking the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates on government bonds, can provide insights into investor sentiment and expectations about the economys future performance.

　　Other economic indicators raise concerns

　　According to the platform, recession fears resonate with concerns echoed by many financial analysts, suggesting that the Feds efforts to engineer a soft landing for the economy may not be succeeding as hoped.

　　Other economic indicators, in addition to the yield curve, have raised concerns about the health of the US economy. For instance, when measured annually, the real gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2024 showed a 1.6% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.

　　However, this expansion was at its slowest pace since the second quarter of 2022, reflecting a significant slowdown from 2023s surprising rapid recovery.

　　Interestingly, following the release of the GDP data, some market players believe the economy is already in trouble. As reported by Finbold, Robert Kiyosaki, author of the renowned book pointed out that the GDP data signals the economy is already in depression.

　　Additionally, US inflation rose to 2.7% in the year to March, another sign that price pressures remain stubbornly high. This complicates the Federal Reserve‘s plan to cut interest rates this year. The unexpected rise will likely increase doubts about the Fed’s potential decision to lower interest rates later this year.