Bitcoin's 200-Day Average About to Lose Bullish Momentum; NFP Eyed

BTC's 200-day SMA is close to shedding its bullish bias for the first time since October.

Short-term averages have already flipped bearish.

The nonfarm payrolls report due later Friday is likely to show the U.S. jobless rate ticked lower in August.

The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of bitcoin's (BTC) price, a widely tracked barometer of the largest cryptocurrency's long-term trajectory, is about to lose its bullish momentum ahead of key U.S. jobs data that is set to influence the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook.

Since late August, the gauge has averaged a daily increase of less than $50, well below the $200-plus moves seen earlier this year, data from charting platform TradingView show. It recently stood at $63,840 with bitcoin's spot price at $55,880.

The slump in variability is a sign the average has hit stall speed for the first time since October, indicating a pause or impending bearish trend change. The latter cannot be ruled out: The short-term moving averages, namely the 50- and 100-day measures, have already peaked and turned lower. The 100-day SMA recently moved below the 200-day SMA, confirming a bearish crossover.

Together, the three signal a weakening in bullish sentiment and growth in caution consistent with increasing macroeconomic uncertainty.

“Looks pretty ugly out there right now, [with the] market rapidly pricing global recession risks,” newsletter service LondonCryptoClub said on X Friday. Still, the final flush lower in BTC could set the stage for a bigger rally, it said.

Alex Kuptsikevish, a senior market analyst at The FxPro, said the risk-off mood in the broader financial market is not helping.

“Despite the dollar's weakness, the financial markets are still in an anxious and expectant mood, which is not helping Bitcoin as much as it is helping gold,” Kuptsikevish said in an email to CoinDesk. “A critical technical support level for the BTCUSD remains just above $54,000, but slippage in the event of a volatility spike could see the price briefly drop below $53,000.”

The daily chart also shows major support at around $50,000, characterized by a trendline connecting corrective lows reached in May and July.

Interestingly, several market observers, including Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, say they expect BTC to drop to $50,000.

“$BTC is heavy, I'm gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short. Pray for my soul, for I am a degen,” Hayes posted on X.

Price volatility may pick up the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP) for August. According to FXStreet, expectations are for a 160,000 rise in jobs following July's 114,000 increase. The jobless rate is forecast to drop to 4.2% from July's near three-year high of 4.2%.

A weak print will likely strengthen recession concerns and boost the probability of a 50 basis point interest-rate cut by the Fed this month, potentially putting a floor under risk assets, including bitcoin. Traders, however, should be watchful of an August-like growth scare in stocks and cryptocurrencies, as discussed Monday.