Industry Experts' Perspectives on the Market Outlook Following the Approval of the ETH ETF

On May 24, it was reported that the SEC officially approved several Ethereum spot ETF 19b-4 forms. According to SEC documents, the SEC approved the 19b-4 forms for spot Ethereum ETFs from multiple issuers, including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale.

Note: The 19b-4 form and the S-1 form are two key steps in the SEC's approval process for new financial products such as Ethereum spot ETFs. Approval of the 19b-4 form grants preliminary listing permission, while approval of the S-1 form completes all reviews and allows formal trading.

Therefore, it is important to note:

• Currently, only the 19b-4 forms have been approved; the S-1 form is still required to officially commence trading. The specific opening date for trading needs to be monitored.

• Grayscale Trust holds 2.9352 million ETH and has a negative premium, which may exert sell pressure on the market.

WikiBit Analyst View

WikiBit analysts believe that ETH will experience a period of sideways movement followed by a sustained upward trend.

Logic:

The current situation is similar to when the BTC spot ETF was approved. Grayscale Trust holds a large number of non-redeemable shares, which have a negative premium in the secondary market. Additionally, Grayscale charges high management fees, significantly higher than competitors. Therefore, once Grayscale opens its ETF, there will be substantial redemptions of $EETH into ETH.

During Grayscale's redemption phase, ETH's volatility is expected to increase. Due to the differences in market size, liquidity, and holder demographics between ETH and BTC, the volatility of ETH is anticipated to be greater than that experienced during the initial phase of the BTC ETF.

Reflecting on the BTC ETF launch, BTC prices dropped from $48,000 to below $4,000. This was primarily due to the realization of the positive news and significant sell pressure from Grayscale. However, the approval of the ETH ETF indicates a potential influx of new capital into the ETH market. Considering various factors, ETH is expected to consolidate and decline initially but will rise after the sell pressure decreases.

Industry Experts' Views

HashKey Analyst:

Jeffery Ding, Chief Analyst at HashKey Group, believes that Ethereum is following the successful path of the Bitcoin ETF, with promising prospects. An attractive feature is that the Ethereum spot ETF is likely to include staking mechanisms, turning it into an interest-bearing asset. In the medium term, the market size of the Ethereum spot ETF is expected to reach 75% of that of the Bitcoin spot ETF.

Additionally, Jeffery Ding notes that if the “21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act” (FIT21) passes, it will transfer regulatory authority over digital currencies from the SEC to the CFTC. Since the CFTC has a more favorable attitude towards cryptocurrencies, other cryptocurrencies may also apply to become spot ETFs in the future, leading the crypto industry towards mainstream acceptance.

Bitget Research Institute:

The Bitget Research Institute points out that the current market reaction is generally positive. The approval of the 19b-4 document increases the likelihood of full ETF approval, making its listing in the U.S. capital market a matter of time. Given ETH's relatively low market cap, the inflow of funds could have a significant impact, making it likely for ETH to reach a new high of $4,800. From an ecosystem perspective, more high-quality and innovative projects are expected to deploy on the Ethereum network, providing strong support for its ecosystem. From an industry impact standpoint, the approval of the ETH ETF is expected to enhance Ethereum's credibility, attract more institutional investors, and further drive its market value, as well as the globalization and popularization of crypto assets.

Cobo Founder DiscusFish:

DiscusFish published an article outlining the timeline for the ETH ETF based on the BTC ETF experience and publicly available market information:

• May 23: Unexpected approval of ETH 19B-4; market makers start purchasing ETH spot to provide liquidity.

• Early June: Possible approval of S1. Referencing the BTC ETF, this could take as quickly as 2 weeks, but the normal pace may require up to 3 months.

• Mid-June: After S1 approval, trading may start immediately or within a few days.

• June to December: During the initial listing phase, the primary inflow of funds is likely to come from retail investors, comprising 80-90% of the total funds; institutional participation may be limited. Given the similarities between ETHE and GBTC, the market may face some arbitrage and selling pressure, and whether it can withstand this selling pressure remains to be seen.

Cryptocurrency Trader Matthew Hyland:

In a May 24 article, Matthew Hyland stated, “I believe that the likelihood of sell-offs with the approval and listing of an Ethereum spot ETF is smaller compared to a Bitcoin spot ETF.”

DeFiance Capital Founder and CEO Arthur Cheong:

Arthur Cheong, founder and CEO of DeFiance Capital, posted on social media that ETH will reach $4,500 before the Ethereum spot ETF begins trading.